What will happen to the dollar?
Every Ukrainian periodically asks himself: "What will happen to the dollar?" For most people in Ukraine, postponing some of the funds to accumulate, often chooses the U.S. currency, rather than national. Although interest rates on hryvnia 2 times higher than the U.S. dollar, the Ukrainians understand that the national currency is unstable.
Forex trader also wondering what will happen to the dollar, because the cost of one of the strongest world currencies has a direct effect on other currencies and currency pairs as a whole, not to mention the precious metals. Today we will look at the current situation with the U.S. dollar and try to make a forecast for the next six months.
What happens with the dollar now?
If you look at a pair of the dollar, you can see that from the beginning of 2013, and especially in the last 2 months (April and May), the dollar becomes more expensive in general. If you look assets that are correlated with the U.S. dollar, such as gold and silver, with an inverse correlation - ie metals rise in price, the dollar depreciates and vice versa, we see that for six months as gold and silver are in a strong downtrend. This confirms a growing trend for the U.S. currency.
Why is this happening and what will happen to the dollar next? "Blame" rise in price "dollar" costs the U.S. economy itself, which came to life and builds momentum. It is important that the main "enemy" of the dollar - Eurocurrency shows cost reduction, although slightly leveled off in the last 2 weeks. Euro became cheaper on the background of debt of some EU countries, the problems with Cyprus and Greece and minor problems like inability to find a compromise in the negotiations between the EU countries.
Also do not forget that on the dollar rests the whole world economy. Almost all calculations, including on monetary and other exchanges occur in U.S. dollars. Similarly, for many economies. All this strengthens the dollar and reduces the rate of inflation and the negative impact on the course of "green", such as programs QE3.
What will happen to the dollar tomorrow?
If we consider the ratio of dollar-Ukrainian hryvnia, almost all experts agree that the hryvnia will cost less than now, by the end of the year, and the dollar may rise to a record 8,4-8,8 UAH. per unit. Ukraine's economy is unable to provide the country and so far no improvement in this sector is not expected.
If we evaluate the situation on a global scale, the forecast looks uncertain. As the euro zone and the United States, did not intend to take the position, and work to improve the state of the national economy. Despite the large number of "green" in the money supply, investment in U.S. currency looks attractive at this stage.
If you are trading on the Forex exchange, you should understand that long-term prognosis and short-term intraday currency fluctuations - not the same thing. Therefore, for intraday trading focus on current news and important indicators of technical analysis. A long-term investment for the U.S. currency also suitable.
If you listen to the opinion of analysts, you can hear a variety of assumptions - note that almost all analysts somehow justify his words. Some are predicting a fall in the dollar due to the large external debt of the United States, others talk about exit from a recession in the U.S. economy. And those and others in their own right. But there are two important nuances that are worth considering us ordinary traders with small capital.
1. Most analysts do not make money trading and forecasts.
2. Real impact on the economy have not small speculators like us (did not want to offend anyone), but specific players (institutions) with big capital.
Notice how in recent months behave EUR/USD, GBP/USD, the pair with the yen, gold and silver. A lot of chaos and excessive volatility, do not you think? Download yourself best automated forex robot and no problems with currency pairs.
What are the implications? Situation remains precarious world currencies. Create long-term prognosis is almost unreal. Therefore, no matter what the analysts, but the answer to the question "What will happen to the dollar tomorrow?" We do not get it. It remains to keep abreast of and Stop Loss.
Successful bidding and remember that the gains from trade is highly dependent on the chosen broker!
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