Prospects for investment: analysis of data for May
The rise in prices on world stocks reached the summit in mid-May and was 5%. However, due to the correction, or, in other words, an attempt to demonstrate U.S. monetary policy retrogression, the final result at the end of the month was more modest (1.5%). Japanese securities affected by the rollback more than others: their value fell by a quarter. Emerging markets worsened the situation, in particular, the ratio of the South African rank dollar Forex decreased by 11%. Stock prices in developed markets showed a positive trend for the first time since the beginning of 2013, while the long-term shares lost nearly 2%. Corporate securities were influenced by the May changes only partially: increase their profitability led to higher payments on interest rate risk.
QE (Quantative easing) - a term that implies a non-standard monetary policy easing, which is used to exit from the crisis. QE policy consists of several incentive programs, in particular the operation Twist. Among the main characteristics of quantitative easing is possible to allocate the growth of the securities market and reducing volatility. Accordingly, the time periods between successive QE policies are characterized by a reverse process - a decrease in the value of shares and bonds, as well as high volatility.
Today, the main purpose of quantitative easing - the support and stimulation of the U.S. economy, in contrast to 2008-2009, when the foreground was the issue of exit from the crisis. QE policy has had a positive impact on both the overall situation of the financial sector, and the private traders who observed increase profitability of their investments. In May, the agenda back on the need to stabilize the U.S. monetary policy. The key theme for discussion in 2013 - outlook for the U.S. economy, in particular the possibility of its development without additional incentives state. Employees Fed announced plans to complete the program QE-3 before the end of 2013. This could provoke a crisis of short-term interest rates and increase the long-term. As a consequence may become low correlation of financial markets.
At the moment the situation of world markets depends on the future of the U.S. economy. Will she stand on its own feet without help? The answer to this question will be known in the coming months. Most analysts assume that the program QE-3 is gradually narrowed throughout 2013, but a significant increase in interest rates is expected only after 2015.
Europe has other needs. EU continues to deal simultaneously with stabilization crises and attempt to fix the economic growth. One of the main objectives of the European Central Bank - bypass the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The current situation is characterized by a serious problem of the eurozone in the face of rising unemployment. European budget revised to create a favorable environment for economic growth. With best ea mt4 you can analyze and trade in forex.
In the period from 2010 emerging markets relative to developed markets lost 35%. After a serious fall PP much cheaper. Unfortunately, this fact is not only positive. For example, Brazil's interest rates have risen by 0.5%, but at the same time, the growth rate of the economy fell by 8%. China and India also continues to support the negative movement of national indexes. In this regard, active investing in emerging market standard can not be called promising.
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