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  • Nasty price action caused by Wed's FOMC, leads to today's offered tome
  • Market jumped to 113.14 on EBS, but could not sustain the break above 113.00
  • Large stops above January 9 113.18 peak, reached again on July 19, survived
  • Japan exporters said to have offers above 113. Range today: 112.56-112.90
  • USD/JPY bulls likely to build ahead of a key Fibo
  • Large NY cut expiries: 111.50 (1.2B), 112.40-50(1.1B) and 113.00 (1.0B)

Hourly Pivot Chart: Click here

  • Price unable to break free of the 10 and 100DMAs, 1.3143 and 1.3141
  • Daily stochs are stalling and positive momentum slowing
  • Weekly action gives a bullish pointer but the 100WMA not letting go, 1.3098
  • Breakout levels seen at 1.3295 and 1.3041. Stand aside for now
  • Push above 1.3295 opens up weekly cloud twist at 1.3567 late December
  • Below 1.3041 and the base of the daily cloud becomes the risk, 1.2868

GBP/USd Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

  • Failed to register a daily close above 1.1780 Fibo for 5 sessions in a row
  • Key 1.1780 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 1.2556 to 1.1301 (2018) EBS fall
  • That has weakened the near-term market structure significantly
  • Increases the likelihood of a drop to test the 30-DMA now at 1.1642
  • We are looking to get long on dips to 1.1655. Previous bullets
  • Fed could help dollar shake off its September blues

Daily Bollinger Chart: Click here

  • The AUD/USD opens barely changed after whippy reaction to the Fed event
  • AUD/USD spiked to 0.7315 when Fed removed "accommodative" from statement
  • Rally short-lived and USD regained ground after dot-plots and Powell presser
  • Fed didn't spring any surprises and remain on track for more tightening
  • Resistance is at the 55-day MA at 0.7302 and the spike high at 0.7315
  • Support is found at the 10-day MA at 0.7241 and Tuesday's low at 0.7236

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Odds for further strength EUR have diminished.

We have held the same view since last Friday (21 Sep, spot at 1.1775) wherein EUR has scope to extend higher to 1.1850. The price action since then has been lackluster at best, as EUR traded within a relatively narrow range of 1.1721/1.1815. The quiet sideway consolidation has resulted in a loss in upward pressure and the odds for further EUR strength have diminished. Unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1800 within these 1 or 2 days, this risk will shift slowly to the downside and break of the 1.1690 ‘key support’ would not be surprising. In other words, time is not on the side of those looking for a higher EUR.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP has moved into a consolidation phase.

GBP touched a high of 1.3218 yesterday, just a couple of pips below the top of our expected 1.3020/1.3220 consolidation range. As highlighted yesterday, despite the rather sharp rebound from last Friday’s 1.3041 low, we continue to view the current price action as part of a consolidation phase. Looking further ahead, a clear break above 1.3220 would be a good indication that GBP is ready to challenge last week’s 1.3295 top.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Risk of a stronger recovery has increased.

While AUD popped above last week’s 0.7305 top (overnight high of 0.7313), the up-move was short-lived. For now, we still see risk for a stronger recovery in AUD towards 0.7360 but patchy upward momentum suggests any up-move would likely be slow and grinding. On the downside, a break of 0.7220 is enough to indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Diminished odds for further NZD strength.

There is not much to add as NZD hit an overnight high of 0.6696, holding just a few pips below last week’s 0.6699 peak. The rapid pullback from the high reinforces our current view wherein the odds for further NZD strength have diminished. However, only a break of 0.6620 (no change in ‘key support’) would indicate that a short-term top is in place. Until then, NZD could stage another leg higher to 0.6730 but this has to happen within these 1 to 2 days or the current upward pressure would ease quickly.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): A break above the July’s peak near 113.15 would not be surprising.

USD came very close to the July’s peak near 113.15 as it briefly hit a high of 113.13 during NY hours. The up-move was short-lived as it dropped back sharply to a low of 112.61. We highlighted on Tuesday (25 Sep, spot at 112.80) that “a break above 113.15 would not be surprising”. Despite the relatively weak daily closing (NY close of 112.72, -0.22%), we still see chance for USD to move above 113.15. That said, upward has been dented and the probability for a break of the next resistance at 113.45 is not high. Only a break of 112.15 (no change in ‘key support’) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.


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